[OPE] Plutonomies redux

(The WSJ subsequently headlined this article, but I do not know how exactly
they define the boundaries of luxury consumption - JB)

Luxury-Goods Sales Still Soft, Recovery Unlikely Before 2011
By VANESSA O'CONNELL
WSJ 19 October 2009

Sales of luxury goods, everything from apparel, to jewelry and leather
goods, are likely to fall globally by 8% this year, to about $227 billion,
according to a revised estimate. The forecast, to be released this morning
by consultants Bain & Co., narrows the global decline that Bain had forecast
six months ago. (...) Bain produces one of the few market forecasts on
luxury goods. Its latest revision raised its estimate for global sales, but
slightly lowered its forecast for U.S. sales. The U.S., which accounts for
roughly a third of luxury-goods sales, remains the worst-hit market. Bain
expects U.S. sales of high-end clothing, accessories, tableware, cosmetics
and jewelry will drop by 16% this year.

That compares with expected sales declines of 10% in Japan, and 8% in
Europe. Together, the three "mature" consumer markets-the U.S., Japan and
Europe-make up more than 80% of world-wide luxury good sales. But a
projected 10% rise in sales of luxury items overall in Asia may help to
partially offset some of the declines, Bain said. The consultancy expects a
12% increase in 2009 luxury-goods sales in mainland China. Bain, which
releases a U.S. retail holiday forecast later this month, said this morning
that it expects to see a 1% decline in sales of luxury goods globally in the
fourth quarter followed by 1% growth overall next year. The luxury goods
industry likely won't fully recover from the downturn until 2011 or 2012, it
predicts. (...)

Complete text
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703816204574482870401187420.html

The 2008 Bain report press release
http://www.bain.com/bainweb/About/press_release_detail.asp?id=26657&menu_url=for_the_media.asp
The 2007 Bain report press release
http://www.bain.com/bainweb/About/press_release_detail.asp?id=26081&menu_url=for_the_media.asp

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Received on Wed Oct 21 14:44:01 2009