(The following is the 2nd post in a row that I am re-sending from this address since when I send messages from msn to ope-l they are being 'delayed' whereas when I send messages from this account to ope-l they get through right away. Yet, when I send messages to any addresses other than ope-l from my msn address they get through right away. Am I being paronoid?/Jerry) Re Patrick's [6071]: In the newspaper article by James Flanigan: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000081843oct14.story the author wrote: > To be sure, the war today is in Afghanistan, which is not an oil producer yet. What are the reasons to think that Afghanistan will *ever* become a major oil producer? I.e. what are the estimates of potential oil supply in Afghanistan and what would be the capital costs required to mine that oil? On a related note, it is *very* important to recall that there are 'oil rich' and 'oil poor' nations in the Middle East. E.g. neither Israel nor Palestine have significant oil in the ground. It would seem reasonable to infer then that US policy towards Israel has not been *primarily* about oil (so US policy on the Middle East is not just about "oil, oil, and oil"). > In the meantime, Russia will continue to develop its relationship with the West, which has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. In quickly calling President Bush on Sept. 11 to pledge Russian support for the U.S., "Putin made smart moves that change Russia's economic outlook," says Joseph Stanislaw, director of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. < It is the current economic crisis in Russia, to a large extent brought on by the US government's policy of encouraging 'free market capitalism' in Russia, which allows the US to have clout in negotiations with Putin over oil exports, i.e. the US literally has Putin over a barrel (of oil). > Oil Reserves and U.S. Imports In the long term, the holders of the biggest petroleum reserves will remain critical to the global economy. *--* Country Oil reserves* (Billion Barrels) Saudi Arabia 262 Iraq 112.5 United Arab 97.8 Emirates Kuwait 96.5 Iran 89.7 Venezuela 77.0 Russia 48.6 United States 29.7 Libya 29.5 Mexico 28.3 < Note how Afghanistan doesn't appear above. Yet, also note the # for Russia (48.6B) compared to the #s for Middle Eastern nations (1028.0 for the 6 ME nations above). This would suggest that imports of Russian oil can not entirely serve as a substitute for importing oil from the Middle East over the medium to long term. Of course, it is possible that demand could be decreased in the US (as suggested by both Flanigan and Fred). I don't think that the US government will commit itself readily to a policy of promoting energy conservation and alternative energy sources. >U.S. Imports by Country (billions of barrels per day) Supplier Country U.S. imports Saudi Arabia 1.7 Venezuela 1.3 Canada 1.3 Mexico 1.3 Nigeria 0.9 Iraq 0.6 Angola 0.3 Norway 0.3 Kuwait 0.3 Colombia 0.2 *--* * U.S. imports are January-July 2001) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration < Note that for the above, 2.6 out of 8.2 billion barrels are imported from the 3 Middle Eastern nations above. Note also how a greater quantity of imported oil to the US comes from Central and South America. One might anticipate that the US government will encourage a greater exporting of oil from that region and additional drilling and 'exploration' there (with significant environmental consequences). The 2.6 billion barrels per day from other NAFTA nations (Canada and Mexico) are quite significant. In solidarity, Jerry
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