I received the following from former listmember Jurriaan Bendien <j.bendien@wolmail.nl: > Hi Jerry ! > > Insofar as econometrics is concerned with the measurement of economic > trends in order to build models and extrapolate future trends (make > predictions), this is surely a worthwhile pursuit for the followers of > Marx. As I mentioned in a post quite a while ago, towards the end of his > life Marx corresponded with Samuel Moore about the possibility of analysing > the ups and downs of the trade cycle statistically and mathematically. The > main problem at the time, however, was that no satisfactory statistical > data were available to do the job properly. > So there is ipso facto no reason at all to believe such a pursuit is > "unMarxist". > > The main issue is rather how we go about it - in an eclectic, empiricist > manner (bringing in exogenous variables as soon as the model fails to > explain a trend) or instead with the benefit of a theory which postulates > causal relationships between key variables, and with due regard to specific > historical circumstances ? Fundamentalists like Ira Gerstein and Geoffrey > Pilling claimed once that value relations cannot be measured. Similarly the > "theoretical practice" of Althusserianism is undisciplined by empirical > research. But such "theoreticism" obviously has nothing in common with the > approach of Marx and Engels, who were actually the first to attempt to > measure the rate of surplus-value empirically. The point of economic > research is rather to bring theory and the data closer together, so that > theory is disciplined by the data of experience, and the study of the data > is informed and guided by theory. Econometric techniques are certainly > useful in this regard ! > > I have just been reading Chris Freeman & Fransisco Louca's book "As Time > Goes By" (Oxford University Press, 2001) which makes a powerful case for > the combination of causal theory, statistical analysis, and historiography > in order to understand the long-term evolution of capitalism. It isn't a > specifically "Marxist" book but I recommend it anyway ! > > Regards > > Jurriaan
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