From: Gerald A. Levy (Gerald_A_Levy@MSN.COM)
Date: Sun Sep 19 2004 - 11:13:50 EDT
Hi Allin. > It seems that the C.L.s may have a point (even if Catherine Mann has > abandoned their ranks). The US current account balance hit its last > major low under Reagan, in 1985-87. The current deficit under Bush is > about 50% greater, in proportion to US GDP, than that earlier figure. > One does wonder how long the other capitalist powers will be willing > to lend Americans the money to buy German and Japanese SUVs and the > fuel to run them. Yes, that's an issue. Those other capitalist powers may continue to lend the money if they think that a failure to do so would push the US economy into crisis and with it the global capitalist economy _and_ their individual nations. Regarding the US economy, I think a lot of us have been expecting the other shoe to drop for years now. Fred, Steve K, Alejandro V and myself have suggested at various times (and for various reasons) on the list that the US economy was due to experience a much more severe economic crisis. (Offhand, I don't recall the arguments advanced by Rakesh against the "chicken littles".) I don't think that makes us "Chicken Littles", though, as I don't think we were being alarmists or asserting fallacies: rather, we had legitimate reasons to believe that a deeper economic crisis in the US was on its way. I guess the really interesting question here isn't whether we were CLs but _why_ the US economy didn't slip into a deeper crisis. One also wonders what the impact of the ongoing war against the people of Iraq will be on the US economy. I don't think it's too soon to conclude that a lot of the supposed advantages of the war for the US -- both politically and economically -- haven't panned out as the US ruling clique planned. Indeed, I think it's becoming apparent that the Iraq War will retard economic growth in the US. For example, consider the impact on the budget deficit. And what do the Bush ideologues have to show -- in terms of economic consequences -- for US capital because of the War? Not much, I think. So -- call me Chicken Little if you wish -- I think that the US economy may _still_ be headed for The Fall (no pun intended) -- but I wouldn't anticipate that will happen before the November elections. In solidarity, Jerry
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