From: Gerald A. Levy (Gerald_A_Levy@MSN.COM)
Date: Wed Sep 29 2004 - 08:46:35 EDT
Hi Paul C. > Yes I agree this is an interesting question. I like to think of it in > terms either of graph theory or Markov transition theory. Each mode > of production is a node in the graph and the transitions between modes > are arcs. Associated with each arc is a transition flux which is the > probability of transition per unit time. > A system of this sort can have a preferential path of development and it is > this 'most likely' path of development that gives us a historical order. The > existence of this ordering appears retrospectively as progress. However > there may be other arcs on the graph, for example ones going from slavery direct > to capitalism which have lower, but non-zero probabilities of occurence. > What the history of the last 20 years should have taught us is that there > was a non-zero probability of transition from socialism to capitalism for > example. > If one views the modes of production as a graph with probability flux > lableled arcs then one has a somewhat richer structure than a unique > linear ordering. I'm going to pass from the question of whether the feudal mode of production was more 'advanced' that the slave mode of production to the more general issue that you discuss above (note change in 'subject line' for thread) because I think it is more interesting. I agree that a linear ordering, such as that presented by Marx as the summarization of his "general conclusion" in the "Preface" to _A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy_, is misleading and runs the risk of being simplistically interpreted.. Yet, for one to develop an alternative in which one "views the modes of production as a graph with probability flux labeled arcs" begs the central question, imo. That question is: what are the causal forces that determine the birthing and development of different modes of production and what are the forces which can explain the transition whereby modes of production that were once dominant are replaced (or surpassed?) such that other modes of production become dominant? While, if one wishes to model such a historical process statistically/mathematically one needs a statistical and mathematical method up to the task, the selection of a probabilistic method is only a 'shell' in which propositions about causal factors have to be identified (and, perhaps, tested). So, how would you identify the factors that cause there to be transitions from one dominant mode of production to another? Or, are there no general trans-historical factors leading to such changes and, therefore, the causes for change are different in each historical instance? Whether one uses graph theory or Markov transition theory, don't these questions have to be asked first? In solidarity, Jerry
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