From: Gerald A. Levy (Gerald_A_Levy@MSN.COM)
Date: Sat Oct 02 2004 - 17:14:03 EDT
Paul C, I thought that we could advance the discussion if you could select a single social formation and show us how you would calculate the transition arc and probability for capitalism => socialism over a reasonably long time period. Your responded by suggesting that this "goes well beyond what historical materialism is currently capable of." OK, then how would you calculate the probability of China/Japan/Holland/North Italy (or any combination of 4 or more international/intercontinental comparisons that you choose) making the transition from capitalism to socialism over the next 50 years? If I understood what you wrote previously (on Thursday) such a calculation is possible and does not go beyond what historical materialism is capable of. In solidarity, Jerry Excerpts from Paul's post on Thursday: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It is only when one starts looking at international/intercontinental comparisons that one can start thinking of it in stochastic terms - the probability of China/Japan/Holland/North Italy undergoing a transition etc. So I think that if we are to progress the discussion we should focus on particular transitions arcs on the graph - and in view of their conjunctural relevance - I suggest we focus on the arcs below: capitalism => socialism socialism => capitalism socialism => communism communism => socialism capitalism => communism communism => capitalism I think that we can assign to all of these arcs some non zero probability flux, but some are obviously more probable than others, and we should have some theory of what makes one arc more probable than another.
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