From: Rakesh Bhandari (bhandari@BERKELEY.EDU)
Date: Fri Jan 20 2006 - 12:10:47 EST
>Rakesh Bhandari wrote: > >> >> >>> >>>Oversupply of labour is temporary. It will come to and end >>>within 25 to 40 years. The growing workforce means an period >>>of exponential growth of the accumulation fund - a growth that >>>is faster than the natural population growth. >> >> >>This proved true after Malthus falsely thought the problem of labor >>oversupply intrinsic to the human condition. But will >>the accumulation fund grow exponentially this time? I suggested >>reasons for skepticism (see long Grossman quotes in my original post). >> >It depends what the bourgeoisie of India and China are like. >If they have a high propensity to accumulate rather than spend >on luxuries, the period of exponential increase in the >size of the proletatiat will coincide with a similar >rise in the surplus and thus in the accumulation fund. A rise in the surplus in absolute terms--yes, perhaps. But what are your projections for the growth of the OCC? > >> >> >> >> >>>By the end >>>of the 2030s the economies of China and india will be looking >>>for external places ot invest their surplus capital - where will >>>that be? >> >> >> >>Why will there be surplus capital? Because there will be a shortage of >>available labour power or because as a result of a shortage of >>surplus labor in the production process surplus value will become surplus >>to accumulation demand? > >Because once demographic transition has occured, a capital >stock growing at the rate of profit * A , where A is the >accumulation ratio out of profits, will be growing faster than >the rate of growth of the population. What are your projections for the rate of profit? It is possible of course that the accumulation ratio of profits will rise while the rate of profit rate falls as a result of upward pressure on the OCC. Marx thought this would be the typical pattern for a robust capitalism. > >Allin and I have a paper comming out in the Indian Journal of >development economics, arguing this case. A preprint under >the title 'Demography and Long Term Profit Rates' appears >on my web page http://www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~wpc/reports/index.html I look forward to reading it. Yours, Rakesh > >> >>Rakesh > > > >-- >Paul Cockshott >Dept Computing Science >University of Glasgow > > > >0141 330 3125
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