From: Alejandro Valle Baeza (valle@SERVIDOR.UNAM.MX)
Date: Tue Feb 14 2006 - 12:30:50 EST
-------- Original Message -------- Subject: Intercambio desigual, mas materialies Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 14:29:41 +0100 From: Tausch, Arno <Arno.Tausch@bmsg.gv.at> To: <valle@servidor.unam.mx> Con mis atentos saludos http://www.gallileus.info/gallileus/members/m_TAUSCH/publications/112928097189/112928121463/?-C=&language=en<http://www.gallileus.info/gallileus/members/m_TAUSCH/publications/112928097189/112928121463/?-C=&language=enus/ From the "Washington" towards a "Vienna Consensus"? A quantitative analysis on globalization, development and global governance. Paper, prepared for the discussion process leading up to the EU-Latin America and Caribbean Summit 2006, May 11, 2006 to May 12, 2006, Vienna, Austria Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales, Buenos Aires by Dr. Arno TAUSCH, Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Innsbruck University "The just ordering of society and the State is a central responsibility of politics. As Augustine once said, a State which is not governed according to justice would be just a bunch of thieves: "Remota itaque iustitia quid sunt regna nisi magna latrocinia?"" Pope Benedict XVI, Encyclical Letter "Deus Caritas Est", 28, a (2006) Table of contents Abstract 7 <file://%5Cl%20> Executive Summary 9 <file://%5Cl%20> 1. Introduction - a reformist perspective on global governance 40 <file://%5Cl%20> 2. Why neo-liberal globalization does not produce the results it promises on a global scale: globalization and the human condition, 1980 - 2005 57 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.1. Introduction 57 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.2. Globalization and the human condition 57 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.3. The fundamental determinants of the human condition 62 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.4 Looking back on more than 3 decades of cross-national research on dependency and development 82 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.5. Towards a research design 84 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.6. The results 93 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.7. Discussion - the most promising direction for future dependency research is research on structural violence, but dependency theory fails to explain economic growth and income inequality 105 <file://%5Cl%20> 2.8. Conclusions 112 <file://%5Cl%20> Appendix to Chapter 2 - The empirical results in detail 113 <file://%5Cl%20> 3. Why neo-liberal globalization and unilateralism do not work: new quantitative insights into world systems governance 127 <file://%5Cl%20> 3.1. Introduction 127 <file://%5Cl%20> 3.2. The historical winners and losers of the globalization processes 1820 - 2005. Selective integration, not all-out world economic openness benefits the semi-periphery 128 <file://%5Cl%20> 3.3. Especially the East European Periphery does not benefit from globalization 131 <file://%5Cl%20> 3.4 Globalization sharply polarizes 134 <file://%5Cl%20> 3.5. Only 2/5 to 1/3 of world society really benefited from the recent phase of globalization 136 <file://%5Cl%20> 3.6. Not the exclusive G7/G8, but the G20 concept is the appropriate immediate answer to improve global governance 140 <file://%5Cl%20> 3.7. World democracy - why not? 149 <file://%5Cl%20> Appendix to Chapter 3 155 <file://%5Cl%20> 4. Why neo-liberal globalization and unilateralism do not work: Kondratiev waves, based on Goldstein's and UNIDO world industrial production data 1740 - 2004. Is a re-make of the world depression of the 1970s and the early 1980s ahead? 159 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.1. Introduction 159 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.2. The cycle of world depressions 161 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.3. The Kondratiev dating game 172 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.4. Kondratievs, the shorter Kuznets cycles and the even longer logistic cycles 175 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.5. The Logic of the Contemporary Crisis - shortening time intervals between major world economic crashes? 180 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.6. Understanding the "Tsunami" waves of world politics and economics 1740 - 2002: the relevance of Professor Fulvio Attinà's "defense pact index" 183 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.7. Some further thought on the shortening rhythm of booms and crises - the relevance of the US Department of Labor's time series of US unemployment 1945 - 2004 188 <file://%5Cl%20> 4.8. Conclusion 191 <file://%5Cl%20> Appendix to Chapter 4 - The indented "M"-structure of Kondratiev waves in the world system 194 <file://%5Cl%20> 5. Why unilateralism does not work: War cycles in the international system, 1495 - 2002 201 <file://%5Cl%20> 5.1. The cycle of global wars 1495 - 2002 201 <file://%5Cl%20> 5.2. A re-analysis of Joshua Goldstein's conflict clock - where are we now? 1870? 1913? 1938? 214 <file://%5Cl%20> 5.3. Conclusion 226 <file://%5Cl%20> 6. How unilateralism did not work in the past: major power wars 227 <file://%5Cl%20> Technical appendix to this Chapter 237 <file://%5Cl%20> 7. Why a new "Vienna Consensus" is necessary. Europe after the French riots and the Latin Americanization of the "old continent". 261 <file://%5Cl%20> 7.1. Introduction - the lost Lisbon race 261 <file://%5Cl%20> 7.2. Europe's social performance by global and Latin American standards 279 <file://%5Cl%20> 7.3. Coming to terms with a debacle: a diagnosis of what went really wrong 293 <file://%5Cl%20> 7.4. The end of social cohesion in Europe and Latin America as we know it 295 <file://%5Cl%20> 7.5. A tale of inequality and growth 319 <file://%5Cl%20> 7.6. "Social Keynesianism" in Europe? 326 <file://%5Cl%20> 7.9. Conclusion 348 <file://%5Cl%20> Documentation: The United Nations on definitions of the UNDP indicators 380 <file://%5Cl%20> Bibliography 384 <file://%5Cl%20> Subject Index 428 <file://%5Cl%20> Person Index 436 <file://%5Cl%20> Dedicated to the memory of Raul Prebisch, 1901 - 1986, on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of his death on May 6th, 1986 Abstract This publication empirically evaluates and develops core aspects of the literature on global governance. Analyzing world social, gender, ecological and economic development on the basis of the main 9 predictors, compatible with the majority of the more than 240 published studies on the cross-national determinants of the "human condition" around the globe, it presents the results of 32 equations about development performance from 131 countries. It comes to the conclusion that while there is some confirmation for the "blue", market paradigm as the best and most viable way of world systems governance concerning economic growth, re-distribution and gender issues, the "red-green" counter-position is confirmed concerning such vital and basic indicators as life expectancy and the human development index. This work also challenges the neo-liberal consensus about democracy and the pure market economy as the way to development, equality, a good environment and peace by showing that selected market interventions and the fairly regulated regime of the early post-war years assured stability in Europe and Japan and contributed to social and economic recovery from the Great Depression and the Second World War. Present attempts to stabilize the world order by bringing in the major western industrialized countries plus Russia (the so-called G-8, composed by France; United States; United Kingdom; Russian Federation; Germany; Japan; Italy; Canada; European Union) must face up to the fact that these countries represent a declining part of world purchasing power. The rise of Asia makes the present G7/G8 structure increasingly irrelevant. This publication also re-establishes the notion that capitalist development is of cyclical nature, with strong fluctuations every 50 years. For us 1756, 1832, 1885, 1932 and 1975 are the beginnings of new Kondratiev waves, while 1756, 1774, 1793, 1812, 1832, 1862, 1885, 1908, 1932, 1958, 1975, and 1992 are the turning points (troughs) of the Kuznets cycles. Vigorous upswings of the capitalist world economy need to be supported by a tightly organized new world political hegemonic order, while the strength of the downswings and the severity of the depressions always are a function of the waning world political order. We show the fatal interconnection between these world political and world economic "tsunami waves" in a more systematic fashion. In the most recent phase of capitalism, its "Casino" character becomes ever more apparent, with a sharp distinction between the winners and losers of the system. So, where are we now? 1870? 1913? 1938? World systems theory is full of speculation about the future, and much of world systems research writing projects a major global war by around 2020 or 2030. The danger arises that instability and not democratization will triumph in the end in the countries of the periphery and the semi-periphery, especially in countries like those of the former USSR. We are especially preoccupied about the economic growth and war intensity connection that seems to have evolved in the world system, if not earlier, than at least since 1946. It is entirely possible that a military Keynesian consensus will emerge in the world system, but that will be a consensus towards warfare. We also show that Europe's crisis is not caused by what the neo-liberals term a "lack of world economic openness" but rather, on the contrary, by the enormous amount of passive globalization that Europe - together with Latin America - experienced over recent years. Our combined measure of the velocity of the globalization process is based on the increases of capital penetration over time, on the increases of economic openness over time, and on the decreases of the comparative price level over time: the United States, Mexico, Venezuela, larger parts of Africa and large sections of West and South Asia escaped from the combined pressures of globalization, while Eastern and Southern Latin America, very large parts of Europe, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Thailand and Malaysia, Russia and China were characterized by a specially high tempo of globalization. The "wider Europe" of the EU-25 is not too distantly away from the social realities of the more advanced Latin American countries. From the viewpoint of world systems theory, especially from the angle of the "Re-Orient" sub-school, initiated by the late Andre Gunder Frank, such tendencies are not a coincidental movement along the historic ups and downs of social indicators, but the very symptom of a much more deeper-rooted crisis, which is the beginning of the real re-marginalization and re-peripherization of the European continent. So, what should be done? By the governments of the world, and by the globalization critical social movements? Only a movement towards global democracy is the valid answer to the fact that the peoples of the world live in a single global social system. The establishment of a European democratic federal state would be the first and most important step in the direction of a socio-liberal world democracy. JEL Classification: C21, D31, E30, F02 Key words: Cross-Section Models, Income Distribution, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - General; International Economic Order, Inequality, Economic Integration: General Ministerial Counselor Dr. Arno TAUSCH, Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Innsbruck University Department of European and International Affairs Federal Ministry of Social Security, Generations and Consumer Protection A-1010 Vienna, Stubenring 1 Republic of Austria Tel. (++ 43 - 1) 711 - 00 - 2272; Facs. (++ 43 - 1) 711 - 00 - 6591 e-mail: Arno.Tausch@BMSG.gv.at http://www.bmsg.gv.at e-Fax (++ 43 - 1) 71894 70 1350 Austrian Foreign Policy: http://www.bmaa.gv.at personal academic website: http://www.mylitsearch.org/mbrx/PT/99/MBR/10134373 (University of Alberta, Canada) Available books from the major Internet book traders http://www.campusi.com Links to freely available electronic English language publications via the World Systems Archive at the University of California, Riverside at: http://wsarch.ucr.edu/archive/papers.htm http://wsarch.ucr.edu/archive/books/tausch/spartoc.htm via IDEAS, University of Connecticut, USA, the largest bibliographic database dedicated to Economics, available freely on the Internet http://ideas.repec.org/e/pta132.html Recommended weblinks http://www.gallileus.info/gallileus/disciplines/WirtschSozialWi/PolitikWi/courses/EU-centerper/weblinks/ Work in progress for the EU-LAC Summit in Vienna, May 11 to May 12, 2006 http://www.gallileus.info/gallileus/members/m_TAUSCH/publications/112928097189/112928121463/?-C=&language=en<http://www.gallileus.info/gallileus/members/m_TAUSCH/publications/112928097189/112928121463/?-C=&language=en -- Posgrado Facultad de Economía Av. Universidad 3000 Circuito interior México 04510, DF México Tel. 55-56222148 fax 55-56222158 Página web: http://usuarios.lycos.es/vallebaeza
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