[OPE-L] fwd: Unequal exchange material

From: Alejandro Valle Baeza (valle@SERVIDOR.UNAM.MX)
Date: Tue Feb 14 2006 - 12:30:50 EST

-------- Original Message --------
Subject:        Intercambio desigual, mas materialies
Date:   Tue, 14 Feb 2006 14:29:41 +0100
From:   Tausch, Arno <Arno.Tausch@bmsg.gv.at>
To:     <valle@servidor.unam.mx>

Con mis atentos saludos


From the "Washington" towards a "Vienna Consensus"? A quantitative
analysis on globalization, development and global governance.

Paper, prepared for the discussion process leading up to the EU-Latin
America and Caribbean Summit 2006, May 11, 2006 to May 12, 2006, Vienna,

Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales, Buenos Aires


Dr. Arno TAUSCH,

Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Innsbruck University

"The just ordering of society and the State is a central responsibility
of politics. As Augustine once said, a State which is not governed
according to justice would be just a bunch of thieves: "Remota itaque
iustitia quid sunt regna nisi magna latrocinia?""

Pope Benedict XVI, Encyclical Letter "Deus Caritas Est", 28, a (2006)

Table of contents

Abstract        7 <file://%5Cl%20>
Executive Summary       9 <file://%5Cl%20>
1. Introduction - a reformist perspective on global governance  40
2. Why neo-liberal globalization does not produce the results it
promises on a global scale: globalization and the human condition, 1980
- 2005 57 <file://%5Cl%20>

2.1. Introduction       57 <file://%5Cl%20>
2.2. Globalization and the human condition      57 <file://%5Cl%20>
2.3. The fundamental determinants of the human condition        62
2.4 Looking back on more than 3 decades of cross-national research on
dependency and development        82 <file://%5Cl%20>
2.5. Towards a research design  84 <file://%5Cl%20>
2.6. The results        93 <file://%5Cl%20>
2.7. Discussion - the most promising direction for future dependency
research is research on structural violence, but dependency theory fails
to explain economic growth and income inequality  105 <file://%5Cl%20>

2.8. Conclusions        112 <file://%5Cl%20>
Appendix to Chapter 2 - The empirical results in detail 113
3. Why neo-liberal globalization and unilateralism do not work: new
quantitative insights into world systems governance 127 <file://%5Cl%20>

3.1. Introduction       127 <file://%5Cl%20>
3.2. The historical winners and losers of the globalization processes
1820 - 2005. Selective integration, not all-out world economic openness
benefits the semi-periphery       128 <file://%5Cl%20>

3.3. Especially the East European Periphery does not benefit from
globalization 131 <file://%5Cl%20>
3.4 Globalization sharply polarizes     134 <file://%5Cl%20>
3.5. Only 2/5 to 1/3 of world society really benefited from the recent
phase of globalization   136 <file://%5Cl%20>
3.6. Not the exclusive G7/G8, but the G20 concept is the appropriate
immediate answer to improve global governance      140 <file://%5Cl%20>

3.7. World democracy - why not? 149 <file://%5Cl%20>
Appendix to Chapter 3   155 <file://%5Cl%20>
4. Why neo-liberal globalization and unilateralism do not work:
Kondratiev waves, based on Goldstein's and UNIDO world industrial
production data 1740 - 2004. Is a re-make of the world depression of the
1970s and the early 1980s ahead?     159 <file://%5Cl%20>

4.1. Introduction       159 <file://%5Cl%20>
4.2. The cycle of world depressions     161 <file://%5Cl%20>
4.3. The Kondratiev dating game 172 <file://%5Cl%20>
4.4. Kondratievs, the shorter Kuznets cycles and the even longer
logistic cycles        175 <file://%5Cl%20>
4.5. The Logic of the Contemporary Crisis - shortening time intervals
between major world economic crashes?     180 <file://%5Cl%20>
4.6. Understanding the "Tsunami" waves of world politics and economics
1740 - 2002: the relevance of Professor Fulvio Attinà's "defense pact
index"     183 <file://%5Cl%20>

4.7. Some further thought on the shortening rhythm of booms and crises -
the relevance of the US Department of Labor's time series of US
unemployment 1945 - 2004       188 <file://%5Cl%20>

4.8. Conclusion 191 <file://%5Cl%20>
Appendix to Chapter 4 - The indented "M"-structure of Kondratiev waves
in the world system      194 <file://%5Cl%20>
5. Why unilateralism does not work: War cycles in the international
system, 1495 - 2002 201 <file://%5Cl%20>
5.1. The cycle of global wars 1495 - 2002       201 <file://%5Cl%20>
5.2. A re-analysis of Joshua Goldstein's conflict clock - where are we
now? 1870? 1913? 1938?   214 <file://%5Cl%20>
5.3. Conclusion 226 <file://%5Cl%20>
6. How unilateralism did not work in the past: major power wars 227
Technical appendix to this Chapter      237 <file://%5Cl%20>
7. Why a new "Vienna Consensus" is necessary. Europe after the French
riots and the Latin Americanization of the "old continent".       261

7.1. Introduction - the lost Lisbon race        261 <file://%5Cl%20>
7.2. Europe's social performance by global and Latin American standards
279 <file://%5Cl%20>
7.3. Coming to terms with a debacle: a diagnosis of what went really
wrong      293 <file://%5Cl%20>
7.4. The end of social cohesion in Europe and Latin America as we know
it       295 <file://%5Cl%20>
7.5. A tale of inequality and growth    319 <file://%5Cl%20>
7.6. "Social Keynesianism" in Europe?   326 <file://%5Cl%20>
7.9. Conclusion 348 <file://%5Cl%20>
Documentation: The United Nations on definitions of the UNDP indicators
380 <file://%5Cl%20>
Bibliography    384 <file://%5Cl%20>
Subject Index   428 <file://%5Cl%20>
Person Index    436 <file://%5Cl%20>

Dedicated to the memory of Raul Prebisch, 1901 - 1986, on the occasion
of the 20th anniversary of his death on May 6th, 1986


This publication empirically evaluates and develops core aspects of the
literature on global governance. Analyzing world social, gender,
ecological and economic development on the basis of the main 9
predictors, compatible with the majority of the more than 240 published
studies on the cross-national determinants of the "human condition"
around the globe, it presents the results of 32 equations about
development performance from 131 countries. It comes to the conclusion
that while there is some confirmation for the "blue", market paradigm as
the best and most viable way of world systems governance concerning
economic growth, re-distribution and gender issues, the "red-green"
counter-position is confirmed concerning such vital and basic indicators
as life expectancy and the human development index.

This work also challenges the neo-liberal consensus about democracy and
the pure market economy as the way to development, equality, a good
environment and peace by showing that selected market interventions and
the fairly regulated regime of the early post-war years assured
stability in Europe and Japan and contributed to social and economic
recovery from the Great Depression and the Second World War. Present
attempts to stabilize the world order by bringing in the major western
industrialized countries plus Russia (the so-called G-8, composed by
France; United States; United Kingdom; Russian Federation; Germany;
Japan; Italy; Canada; European Union) must face up to the fact that
these countries represent a declining part of world purchasing power.
The rise of Asia makes the present G7/G8 structure increasingly irrelevant.

This publication also re-establishes the notion that capitalist
development is of cyclical nature, with strong fluctuations every 50
years. For us 1756, 1832, 1885, 1932 and 1975 are the beginnings of new
Kondratiev waves, while 1756, 1774, 1793, 1812, 1832, 1862, 1885, 1908,
1932, 1958, 1975, and 1992 are the turning points (troughs) of the
Kuznets cycles. Vigorous upswings of the capitalist world economy need
to be supported by a tightly organized new world political hegemonic
order, while the strength of the downswings and the severity of the
depressions always are a function of the waning world political order.
We show the fatal interconnection between these world political and
world economic "tsunami waves" in a more systematic fashion. In the most
recent phase of capitalism, its "Casino" character becomes ever more
apparent, with a sharp distinction between the winners and losers of the

So, where are we now? 1870? 1913? 1938? World systems theory is full of
speculation about the future, and much of world systems research writing
projects a major global war by around 2020 or 2030. The danger arises
that instability and not democratization will triumph in the end in the
countries of the periphery and the semi-periphery, especially in
countries like those of the former USSR. We are especially preoccupied
about the economic growth and war intensity connection that seems to
have evolved in the world system, if not earlier, than at least since
1946. It is entirely possible that a military Keynesian consensus will
emerge in the world system, but that will be a consensus towards warfare.

We also show that Europe's crisis is not caused by what the neo-liberals
term a "lack of world economic openness" but rather, on the contrary, by
the enormous amount of passive globalization that Europe - together with
Latin America - experienced over recent years. Our combined measure of
the velocity of the globalization process is based on the increases of
capital penetration over time, on the increases of economic openness
over time, and on the decreases of the comparative price level over
time: the United States, Mexico, Venezuela, larger parts of Africa and
large sections of West and South Asia escaped from the combined
pressures of globalization, while Eastern and Southern Latin America,
very large parts of Europe, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Thailand and Malaysia,
Russia and China were characterized by a specially high tempo of

The "wider Europe" of the EU-25 is not too distantly away from the
social realities of the more advanced Latin American countries. From the
viewpoint of world systems theory, especially from the angle of the
"Re-Orient" sub-school, initiated by the late Andre Gunder Frank, such
tendencies are not a coincidental movement along the historic ups and
downs of social indicators, but the very symptom of a much more
deeper-rooted crisis, which is the beginning of the real
re-marginalization and re-peripherization of the European continent.

So, what should be done? By the governments of the world, and by the
globalization critical social movements? Only a movement towards global
democracy is the valid answer to the fact that the peoples of the world
live in a single global social system. The establishment of a European
democratic federal state would be the first and most important step in
the direction of a socio-liberal world democracy.

JEL Classification: C21, D31, E30, F02

Key words: Cross-Section Models, Income Distribution, Prices, Business
Fluctuations, and Cycles - General; International Economic Order,
Inequality, Economic Integration: General

Ministerial Counselor Dr. Arno TAUSCH,
Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Innsbruck University

Department of European and International Affairs

Federal Ministry of Social Security, Generations and Consumer Protection

A-1010 Vienna, Stubenring 1

Republic of Austria

Tel. (++ 43 - 1) 711 - 00 - 2272; Facs. (++ 43 - 1) 711 - 00 - 6591

e-mail: Arno.Tausch@BMSG.gv.at


e-Fax (++ 43 - 1) 71894 70 1350

Austrian Foreign Policy: http://www.bmaa.gv.at

personal academic website:


(University of Alberta, Canada)

Available books from the major Internet book traders


Links to freely available electronic English language publications

via the World Systems Archive at the University of California, Riverside



via IDEAS, University of Connecticut, USA, the largest bibliographic
database dedicated to Economics, available freely on the Internet


Recommended weblinks


Work in progress for the EU-LAC Summit in Vienna, May 11 to May 12, 2006



Posgrado Facultad de Economía

Av. Universidad 3000 Circuito interior

México 04510, DF México

Tel. 55-56222148 fax 55-56222158

Página web: http://usuarios.lycos.es/vallebaeza

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