From: Jurriaan Bendien (adsl675281@TISCALI.NL)
Date: Sat Dec 16 2006 - 07:16:53 EST
Growth Prospects Are Strong, but Social, Environmental Pressures from Globalization Need More Attention Press Release No:2007/159/DEC WASHINGTON, DC, December 13, 2006 - Globalization could spur faster growth in average incomes in the next 25 years than during 1980-2005, with developing countries playing a central role. However, unless managed carefully, it could be accompanied by growing income inequality and potentially severe environmental pressures, predicts the World Bank. According to Global Economic Prospects 2007: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization, growth in developing countries will reach a near record 7 percent this year. In 2007 and 2008, growth will probably slow, but still likely exceed 6 percent, more than twice the rate in high-income countries, which is expected to be 2.6 percent. (...) Global trade in goods and services could rise more than threefold to $27 trillion in 2030, and trade as a share of the global economy will rise from one-quarter today to more than one-third. Roughly half of the increase is likely to come from developing countries. Developing countries that only two decades ago provided 14 percent of manufactured imports of rich countries, today supply 40 percent, and by 2030 are likely to supply over 65 percent. At the same time, import demand from developing countries is emerging as a locomotive of the global economy. (...) Globalization is likely to bring benefits to many. By 2030, 1.2 billion people in developing countries - 15 percent of the world population - will belong to the "global middle class," up from 400 million today. This group will have a purchasing power of between $4,000 and $17,000 per capita, and will enjoy access to international travel, purchase automobiles and other advanced consumer durables, attain international levels of education, and play a major role in shaping policies and institutions in their own countries and the world economy. The next wave of globalization will likely intensify stresses on the "global commons," which could jeopardize long-term progress, the report warns. Nations will have to work together to play a larger role in issues involving global public goods - from mitigating global warming, to containing infectious diseases like avian flu, to preventing the decimation of the world's fisheries. According to the report, global warming is a serious risk. (...) Internationally, the report calls for stronger institutions for tackling threats to the global commons. It also calls for more and better development assistance. Reducing barriers to trade is vital as well, since it can create new opportunities for poor countries and poor people. "Revitalizing the Doha round of world trade negotiations and concluding an agreement that benefits the poor is urgent," said Mr. Dadush. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:21157190~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html It's interesting how the concept of a "global commons" has crept back into the discussion - except it is only defined in terms of such things as the weather, the air we breathe, bacteria and viruses, and fish in the open sea.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sun Dec 31 2006 - 00:00:04 EST