[OPE-L] References on credit crunch: Fixing previous error

From: Alejandro Valle Baeza (valle@SERVIDOR.UNAM.MX)
Date: Mon Jan 14 2008 - 10:11:18 EST

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This Strategic Analysis provides a retrospective view of U.S. growth in the last 10 years, showing that the authors’ previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a useful contribution to the public discussion. The analysis reviews recent events in the U.S. housing and financial markets to obtain a likely scenario for the evolution of household spending. It argues that a significant drop in borrowing is likely to take place in the coming quarters, with severe consequences for growth and unemployment, unless (1) the U.S. dollar is allowed to continue its fall and thus complete the recovery in the U.S. external imbalance, and (2) fiscal policy shifts its course—as it did in the 2001 recession.

Publication(s):
Strategic Analysis, November 2007

The Effects of a Declining Housing Market on the U.S. Economy

Longstanding speculation about the likelihood of a housing market collapse has given way in the past few months to consideration of just how far the housing market will fall and how much damage the debacle will inflict on the economy. In this paper, we discuss recent developments related to the housing market; econometrically assess the magnitude of the impact of housing price decreases on real private expenditure; assess the importance of new types of mortgages and mortgage-related securities; and briefly analyze possible policy responses.

Publication(s):
Working Paper No. 506

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