Feb 20, 2009
Satellite Data Show No Warming Before 1997. Changes Since Not Related to
CO2
By Arno Arrak
A full analysis of satellite-measured lower tropospheric temperatures
indicates that none of the global temperature variations from 1978 to
2008 can be attributed to the effect of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse
gas. The record shows global climate oscillations with a period of three
to five years and a peak-to-peak amplitude of 0.4 to 0.5 degrees Celsius
about a common, fixed mean temperature that lasted from 1978 to 1997.
Since this mean
temperature did not change for twenty years the late twentieth century
warming touted by IPCC and others simply did not happen. The cause of
these newly discovered climate oscillations is large-scale periodic
movement of ocean waters from shore to shore, part of the El Nino –
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. It is accompanied by a massive,
periodic transfer of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere and back
again which was previously
unsuspected and which is detectable even in land-based records. This
major atmospheric phenomenon is missing from all IPCC Global Circulation
Models (GCMs) and thereby invalidates conclusions drawn from their
climate models. Satellite records show that this oscillatory period
ended with a giant warming peak known as the “super El Nino of 1998.”
This unusual peak does not belong to the oscillatory ENSO system but
interrupts it and could well be of cosmogenic origin. After it subsided
the interrupted ENSO oscillation continued. But it had been energized
from that warm peak and in three years the global temperature rose to a
plateau 0.2 degrees above previous peaks. The expected climate downturn
that should have followed failed to occur and temperature stayed up
there for six years. It lasted from 2001 to 2007. This “twenty first
century high,” together with the warming peak that preceded it, accounts
for recent accelerated loss of arctic ice. Contrary to carbon dioxide
theory the world temperature did not increase but stayed the same during
this period. The period ended with a climate downturn in 2007.
Carbon dioxide cannot explain the lack of warming in the eighties and
nineties, nor any of the abrupt warmings that followed, nor the stasis
of the twenty first century high, nor the temperature downturn that
followed it in 2007 and bottomed out in 2008. A direct comparison of
these satellite data with ground-based measurements is also possible.
Comparing satellite (UAH MSU LT) and land-based (HadCRUT3) data for the
eighties and nineties gives HadCRUT3 a warming trend of 0.1 degrees
Celsius per decade (one degree per century) while lower tropospheric
satellite data show no warming at all. This is compounded by the fact
that satellite measurements of midtropospheric temperature show a
long-term cooling effect for this period. Looking for sources
of error in ground-based data one is led to the usual suspect, the urban
heat island effect.
Fatal computer errors in IPCC climate models derive from the fact that
none of the abrupt warmings and coolings on the record, especially since
1998, can be attributed to the greenhouse effect. Hence, all IPCC models
purporting to predict (project??) climate a hundred years into the
future are invalid and their predictions/projections must be discarded.
To summarize: existing theory used by the IPCC can neither explain the
observed climate nor predict the future. Carbon dioxide warming has been
shown to be non-existent in the eighties and nineties, and the warming
since 1998 is not carbonaceous in origin. It follows that Quijotic
carbon dioxide policies like the Kyoto Protocol and the cap-and-trade
laws should be abandoned. See post here.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ThereWasNoGlobalWarmingBefore1997(February15th2009).pdf
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Received on Sun Feb 22 14:38:27 2009
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