With regards to Duncan's post OPE 1229 of 26/2/96,
here are some figures I put together in 1992 for
gold profits. The data source is a book by Duncan Innes
called Anglo American and the Rise of Modern
South Africa (Heinemann), which contains very detailed
figures on productivity, profits and the like
for South African Mines.
I calculated a figure for the 'deflated profit
per tonne' of the mining industry in South Africa
as a whole. This was obtained by dividing the profit
per tonne in dollars by the US producer price index.
The last column is the percentage change in the
deflated profit. It seems to be a very strong predictor
of cyclic behaviour; gold profits rise before slumps
and fall before booms.
I never did anything more with the figures but
it's interesting.
Year Profit Deflated %Change
per tonne Profit/tonne
1902 1.82 0.016106195 N/A
1903 1.64 0.014385965 -0.109756098
1904 1.57 0.013652174 -0.044585987
1905 1.38 0.012 -0.137681159
1906 1.38 0.011596639 0
1907 1.46 0.01168 0.054794521
1908 1.48 0.012231405 0.013513514
1909 1.27 0.009769231 -0.165354331
1910 1.15 0.008455882 -0.104347826
1911 1.05 0.0084 -0.095238095
1912 1.1 0.008270677 0.045454545
1913 1.05 0.007835821 -0.047619048
1914 0.99 0.007557252 -0.060606061
1915 0.93 0.006992481 -0.064516129
1916 0.9 0.005487805 -0.033333333
1917 0.83 0.003672566 -0.084337349
1918 0.66 0.002619048 -0.257575758
1919 0.61 0.002293233 -0.081967213
1920 1.05 0.003547297 0.419047619
1921 1.05 0.005614973 0
1922 0.88 0.004731183 -0.193181818
1923 1.04 0.005388601 0.153846154
1924 1.13 0.006010638 0.079646018
1925 0.97 0.00489899 -0.164948454
1926 0.98 0.005104167 0.010204082
1927 0.98 0.005326087 -0.031578947
1928 0.95 0.005107527 -0.032608696
1929 0.92 0.005027322 0.031578947
1930 0.95 0.005722892 -0.021505376
1931 0.93 0.006642857 -0.010869565
1932 0.92 0.00736 0.494505495
1933 1.82 0.014330709 -0.04
1934 1.75 0.012152778 -0.080246914
1935 1.62 0.010519481 -0.109589041
1936 1.46 0.009419355 -0.065693431
1937 1.37 0.008253012 -0.053846154
1938 1.3 0.008609272 0.029850746
1939 1.34 0.009054054 0.172839506
1940 1.62 0.010728477 -0.08
1941 1.5 0.008928571 -0.041666667
1942 1.44 0.007578947 -0.035971223
1943 1.39 0.007020202 -0.120967742
1944 1.24 0.0062 -0.042016807
1945 1.19 0.005862069 -0.166666667
1946 1.02 0.004396552 -0.159090909
1947 0.88 0.003087719 0.073684211
1948 0.95 0.003084416 0.28030303
1949 1.32 0.004505119 0.308900524
1950 1.91 0.006282895 -0.15060241
1951 1.66 0.004896755 -0.169014085
1952 1.42 0.00430303 -0.083969466
1953 1.31 0.004030769 0.02962963
1954 1.35 0.004141104 0.087837838
1955 1.48 0.004525994 0.063291139
1956 1.58 0.004674556 0.18134715
1957 1.93 0.00556196 0.063106796
1958 2.06 0.005852273 0.234200743
1959 2.69 0.007620397 0.112211221
1960 3.03 0.008583569 0.129310345
1961 3.48 0.009886364 0.089005236
1962 3.82 0.01082153 0.054455446
1963 4.04 0.011477273 0.069124424
1964 4.34 0.012294618 0.029082774
1965 4.47 0.012416667 0.00886918
1966 4.51 0.012123656 -0.063679245
1967 4.24 0.011397849 -0.019230769
1968 4.16 0.010890052 0.03030303
1969 4.29 0.010833333 -0.1
1970 3.9 0.009489051 0.129464286
1971 4.48 0.010566038 0.399463807
1972 7.46 0.016839729 0.444113264
1973 13.42 0.026786427 0.376394052
1974 21.52 0.036107383 -0.21307779