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I agree with everybody that we should be patient and not shut OPEL
down and am glad that Jerry has agreed. I myself am kind of enjoying a
break from intensive and time-consuming discussions on OPEL, in order to
try to finish several papers, but I certainly look forward to future
discussions.
Alejandro Valle suggests a discussion on the current crisis, and I would
definitely be interested. It still seems to me as we discussed briefly back
in November, that the key question remains: are widespread bankruptcies
a necessary precondition for recovery from the crisis? If so, then the crisis
is far from over and the worst is yet to come. On the other hand, Asian
governments are spending lots of public money to try to bail out the banks
in their countries, who in turn are supposed to write off their "non-
performing" loans to non-financial corporations who cannot pay. In this
way, it is hoped that banks will start to lend again and corporations will
start to invest again. Will this work? What about continued low profits
and excess capacity? How much debt will actually be written off? I think
these are the most important questions at the moment. If the government
bail-out works, then it seems to me that capitalism will have largely solved
its major problem of periodic crises and depressions. If capitalism can
survive such a high degree of insolvency without a major depression, then I
think we can pretty much forget about crises, at least any time soon.
Alejandro, I am very interested in your comments about the overvaluation
of the US stock market. Unfortunately, I have not yet been able to
download your file. In the meantime, perhaps you could elaborate a bit:
overvaluation compared to what? historical price-earnings ratios?
rate of interest on 10-year Treasury bonds? or something else?
This is an extremely important question at the present time. It seems like
the short-term future of the whole world economy hinges almost entirely
on the US stock market. The US economy is the only significant economy
in the world that is growing strongly at the present time. Almost all of
this growth is coming from strong consumer spending (with a negative
saving rate!). And this consumer spending spree has been fueled mainly
by the booming US stock market. Thus, if the US stock market continues
booming, then perhaps the US economy can continue rapid growth and the
world economy can eventually recover. However, on the other hand, if the
US stock market crashes, then so will the US economy, and with it the rest
of the world.
An important cause of the US stock market boom has been a significant
inflow of foreign capital fleeing the crisis in the rest of the world. So the
"boom" in the US economy is in part the result of the depression in the
rest of the world. I discuss the important role of capital imports in an
article in the most recent issue of Capital and Class. But how long can
this go on? I don't think much longer.
Attached to this file is a recent paper of mine that will appear in the
March issue of Monthly Review. It suggests that the probability is high
that the US economy will fall into recession in the next year or so, which
in turn will knock the world economy into deep depression. As always,
comments are welcome.
Alejandro, how do things look in Mexico?
And our Brazilian comrades (Claus, Eduardo, Lada, etc.): how do things
look in Brazil (pretty grim I suspect)?
And Michael W. and Geert and Alfredo and Suzanne and others, how do
things look in Europe?
I look forward to further discussion.
Comradely,
Fred
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