I agree with Fred that a USA economic crisis is not far from now. My
argument is quite simple: the last recesion in US economy finished in
1992:
Economic cycles in Postwar US economy:
October 1945 November 1948 8 37 88 45
October 1949 July 1953 11 45 48 56
May 1954 August 1957 10 39 55 49
April 1958 April 1960 8 24 47 32
February 1961 December 1969 10 106 34 116
November 1970 November 1973 11 36 117 47
March 1975 January 1980 16 58 52 74
July 1980 July 1981 6 12 64 18
November 1982 July 1990 16 92 28 108
March 1991 8 --- 100 ---
(information from NBER site)
The maximum of US expansion is 106 months and actual expansion is close
to such maximum. Hence, every day US recesion is more likely to occur.
In my opinion the question is not if a recesion in US will hapen but how
strong it will be and if it will be at the same time than recesion in
Europe an Japan.
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