Dear Jurriaan, Fred, Cai-on, Mike, Jerry and other friends;
Sorry to trouble you technically by my files. Let me convert the files into
Word 6.0/95 and try to send them again in un-encoded form. Let me know if
you can read them or not.
On Fred's inquirries [OPE-L;1227]; a survey of the Mistry of Finace
estimated the total bad loan in the Japanese banks amounts to 76 trillion
yens or 12 per cent of their total loan in January 1998, as I quoted in the
chapter in the file. Where did you pick up the estimation of 1 trillion
dollars? As the share prices rose, though moderately, its burden would be
reduced after the injection of public money. The amount of bad loan is
highly related to the prices of shares and real estate. The maximum amount
of public money to be allowed to be injected into banks is 60 trillion yens.
The actual amount would not yet be so much.
As you say, it is remarkable that the burst of huge bubble to cause bad loan
did not ignite the full sized monetary and financial crisis. The reasons are
worth reconsideration. The largest foreign exchange reserave in the world,
made by the trade surplus, the financial positions of big businesses to
endure the damage of the collapsed bubbles, the extremely lowered interest
rate, besides rescue operation of the government for banks would have worked
together. I suspect if the government and the Bank of Japan were the only
factores to explain. It is highly unpredictable also what happens when the
huge bubble in New York collapses.
Though Japanese government and business circles tend to follow and try to
support the US debt economy including the bubble, the China with the second
largest amount of foreign exchange reserve mostly in dollars would move more
independently and even against the US national interest.
Jerry; I am almost persuaded, though I am still not sure if I can work for
some part of cooperative work for the electoric journal at the moment.
All the best,
Makoto
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