Copyright 2004 Newspaper Publishing PLC  
Independent on Sunday (London)
October 31, 2004, Sunday
SECTION: First Edition; NEWS; Pg. 12

LENGTH: 358 words

HEADLINE: ELECTION DIARY: THE US ELECTION

BYLINE: TOM CARVER

BODY:
Here are three predictions for Tuesday. The first comes from people not old enough to vote.

A newspaper for kids in America called The Weekly Reader says its readers have picked the winner in 11 out of the last 12 presidential elections. If they're right this time, then George Bush will win by a landslide. In fact, John Kerry came out on top in their poll in only one state: Maryland.

However, Nickelodeon, the popular children's TV channel, has a totally different take. It too polled viewers from around the country. Some 400,000 children took part - including my 10-year-old son. Nickelodeon has only been doing this since 1988, but it has a 100 per cent success rate. And in their poll the winner was Kerry, 57 per cent to 43 per cent. So, pick your poll and choose your winner.

If you don't like kids, try America's newspaper editors. Another straw in the wind that is being used is newspaper endorsements. In 2000, George Bush got fewer endorsements from newspapers than Al Gore. This time around, Bush is trailing Kerry, by 175 to 138. Perhaps that just proves that most journalists are Democrats. But a number of normally conservative newspapers have been unable to bring themselves to support Bush. Instead of backing Kerry, they have simply abstained.

There's better news for Bush among America's closet gamblers.

It's illegal to gamble on the outcome of the presidential election within the US, but the borderless internet has made it easier. According to Koleman S Strumpf, a professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, who tracks gambling trends, most are betting on a Bush victory.

At Intrade.com where you can gamble - sorry trade - in Bush and Kerry shares, 55 per cent have put money on Bush winning with 45 per cent on Kerry. When money is concerned, people usually take a lot more care over their decision. However it's not necessarily the same decision as the one you make in the ballot booth. In gambling, people are betting on who they think will win, not necessarily on who they want to win.

Tom Carver is the Washington correspondent for BBC2's Newsnight'

LOAD-DATE: October 31, 2004