Copyright (c) 2004, Dow Jones & Company Inc.
Reproduced with permission of copyright owner. Further reproduction or
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OBJECT: BECOME THE next leader of the free world. Method: Collect 270
of 538 electors. Two major players, ages 35 and up.
Generations of Americans have turned presidential politics into parlor
games and betting contests. But after the last, popular-vote- defying
election -- an act that some think could be repeated this year -- the
games have taken on a new focus: the Electoral College itself. A range of
new offerings, including videogames, board games and Internet sites where
participants choose potential election outcomes, show the new prominence
that the institution has assumed in the gaming culture.
Frontrunner, eLECTIONS and The Political Machine are among the new
election-simulating videogames that turn players into campaign managers
who must constantly factor their candidates' Electoral College vote totals
into such decisions as how to allocate resources on travel, speeches and
attack ads. All three offer a dazzling array of state-specific polls and
electoral-vote calculators to help virtual Karl Roves determine how to get
the most electoral bang for their limited campaign bucks.
Even many informal betting pools, a staple of the quadrennial Election
Night parties that will convene this evening around the country, are
focusing on the Electoral College, rather than on the better-known but
politically inconsequential popular vote.
In The Political Machine, a campaign manager locked in a close battle
checks "Zagby" (a tongue-in-cheek reference to widely quoted Zogby)
surveys to check his candidate's Electoral College standings -- finding,
for example, that he must win Ohio without losing Iowa in order to clinch
the prize. The manager could afford to send either an "Intimidator" into
Ohio to suppress his opponent's turnout, or a "Media Darling" to pump up
the ratings in Iowa -- but not both.
For board-game fans, Landslide turns players into presidential
contenders who gain and lose states on an Electoral College map as they
travel along a square-shaped campaign trail that bears a resemblance to
Monopoly. A Landslide player might spend political capital to win a
vote-rich state like Texas by one vote, only to see an opponent draw a
"Maverick" card inspired by the Washington elector who cast his Electoral
College vote for Ronald Reagan in 1976, even though Gerald Ford won the
state. The $30 board game is available online and at a few retail
locations around Minneapolis, where its inventors live.
"For a lot of people, you have to turn a serious subject into a game to
fully involve them. The Electoral College is kind of a puzzl ...a serious
puzzle," says Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the
University of Virginia who runs his own Electoral College- predicting Web
site called Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
The primary legal domestic avenue for placing election bets in the U.S.
is the Iowa Electronic Markets, which is now closed to new bettors. Among
the most popular overseas sites are two Irish betting exchanges called
Tradesports.com and Intrade.com, both new since the 2000 election. The two
sites handled $30 million worth of wagers in October -- mostly from
Americans -- on everything from whether President Bush would win Wisconsin
to whether Sen. John Kerry would garner more than 300 electoral votes.
Americans more interested in placing tiny bets for fun are joining
informal betting pools with friends, family or co-workers. Like
contestants filling out their brackets for the March Madness college
basketball tournament or the Oscars, players generally pick the winners in
each state and settle on a final Electoral College vote tally for the
candidate.
Pool organizers range from political junkies to political novices who
want to liven up parties or connect with friends. "We're trying to make it
comfortable for both sides," says Susan Slack, who's conducting a pool as
part of her Election Night party in Duluth, Ga. Other features of her
party: Pin the Trunk on the Elephant, an Electoral College quiz and snacks
of red-and-blue-colored nachos.
The stakes range from pool to pool. Allan Keiter, the president of
MyRatePlan.com, which provides information for cellphone rate plans, hopes
to gather enough contestants to pay the winner $270 -- the magic number of
electors needed to win the Electoral College. Meanwhile, the winner of
James Erwin's contest in Ames, Iowa, will receive a hodgepodge of buttons,
stickers and other campaign collectibles. "We live in Iowa, so they tend
to pile up pretty fast," Mr. Erwin says.
Today's gamblers follow a long history of betting on the presidential
race. Between 1880 and 1928, election wagering was a huge, legal industry
centered in New York and was regularly covered by major newspapers,
including The Wall Street Journal. Republican and Democratic party bosses
took part, and a record $165 million changed hands in the 1916 election,
when Democrat Woodrow Wilson won Ohio and Florida to beat Charles Evans
Hughes.
"The newspapers were reluctant to report on the [betting], but there
was nothing else to tell them how close the races were," says Koleman
Strumpf, an economics professor at the University of North Carolina. After
that election, he says, a series of Wall Street scandals and the rise of
parimutuel gambling contributed to state laws that pushed election
wagering back into the shadows. At the same time, scientific polling
eliminated the need for newspapers to rely on bettors' odds.
By comparison, today's gamblers have a surfeit of Web sites and news
outlets to help them calculate the odds. Sites like www.electoral-
vote.com and www.270towin.com continually update their election maps based
on the latest polls, and www.unfutz.blogspot.com has become a go-to site
for its compendium of predictions. The U.S. Electoral College Calculator
on www.grayraven.com offers two interesting things: a blank map for the
reader to fill in with picks, and a historical map from previous U.S.
elections that allows the reader to engage in some serious revisionism by
changing which candidate won which state.
Media Web sites, meanwhile, are full of Electoral College maps and
forecasts for which way the battleground states will go. CNN's Web site
even offers a contest called the "Presidential Showdown Game," in which
the person who picks the most states correctly wins a flat- screen
television.
Teachers are using online resources, too. BrainPOP, a company
specializing in educational videos, claims 20% of schoolchildren have seen
its videos, including one that explains the Electoral College. Alan
Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta,
is challenging his students to beat his Electoral College predictions.
Those who do get a certificate announcing that they "Beat the Prof."
A University of Oklahoma comedy troupe called O.U. Improv is staging a
five-hour show tonight on campus. One particularly relevant feature of the
performance: A table of audience members will be the Electoral College,
who can overrule "the popular vote" -- which is to say, everyone else.
All this reflects how hot the nation's political temperature is
running. "It's kind of like a football game where virtually everyone I
know went to one of the schools," says Ben Curran, a real estate developer
who is taking part in Mr. Keiter's pool. "It's a real rivalry, but unlike
a football game, it actually really matters." |