Press Release 05-128
Hurricanes Growing More Fierce Over Past 30 Years
July 31, 2005
Hurricanes have grown significantly more powerful and
destructive over the past three decades, according to atmospheric
scientist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
In his new analysis of tropical hurricane records, which he reports online today in the journal Nature,
Emanuel finds that both the duration of the storms and their maximum
wind speeds have increased by about 50 per cent since the mid-1970s.
Moreover, this marked increase in the energy release has occurred in
both the north Atlantic and the north Pacific Oceans.
Unlike previous studies, which have focused on whether hurricanes
are becoming more frequent, Emanuel's study is one of the first to ask
whether they are becoming more fierce.
"It's an innovative application of a theoretical concept, and has
produced a new analysis of hurricanes' strength and destructive
potential," says Jay Fein, director of the National Science Foundation
(NSF)'s climate dynamics program, which funded the research. And that
analysis, in turn, "has resulted in an important measure of the
potential impact of hurricanes on social, economic and ecological
systems,"
Indeed, as Emanuel himself says, "the near doubling of hurricane's
power over the period of record should be a matter of some concern, as
it's a measure of the [future] destructive potential of these storms."
Also of concern, he says, is that the increases in storm intensity
are mirrored by increases in the average temperatures at the surface of
the tropical oceans, suggesting that this warming is responsible for
the hurricanes' greater power. Since hurricanes depend on warm water to
form and build, Emanuel warns that global climate change might increase
the effect of hurricanes still further in coming years.
In addition, he says, recent research suggests that global tropical
hurricane activity may play a role in driving the oceans' circulation,
which in turn has important "feedbacks" to regional and global climate.
Fluctuations in tropical hurricane activity "are of obvious
importance to society," he adds, "especially as populations of affected
areas increase. Hurricanes account for a significant fraction of
damage, injury and loss of life from natural hazards, and are the
costliest natural catastrophes in the United States. As the human
population in coastal regions gets denser, the damage and casualties
produced by more intense storms could increase considerably in the
future."
-NSF-
Media Contacts
Cheryl Dybas, NSF     (703) 292-7734 cdybas@nsf.gov
Elizabeth Thomson, MIT (617) 258-5402 thomson@mit.edu
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