the problem that the US confronts in Afghanistan is the setting up of a legitimate govt that somehow keeps the Persian speaking Afghani ethnic groups (the Hazaras and the Tajiks) out of power. The US had supported the Taleban because it could rely on this Pakhtoon based govt to protect its oil interests from Iran. At present, the US has been trying to run the pipelines East-West, and through Turkey. Iran poses a problem because it is the lowest cost route to Asia, and the Norwegian oil firms have shown an interest in going through Iran from Turkmenistan which the US will probably try to pressure using the carrot of the security services which it can offer. The US has been seeking to keep Iran out of the pipeline business (remember the US retains sanctions on Iran, Libya and Iraq--which has decreased supply into US markets). Because of a fear of Iranian influence, the US has not been willing to allow a multi-ethnic, democratic govt to gain power in Afghanistan. Oil and gas must flow through Iran and Afghanistan to meet demand in Asia most efficiently, but the profits are not to be shared with Iran. The first Unocal consortium for the pipeline through Afghanistan included Japan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, but Iran was excluded. It's not reasonable that Iran will stand aside as the massively profitable Caspian Sea pipeliness business is developed, but this has indeed been the goal of US policy. The US would obviously like to ensure that the Afghani govt comissions American companies for the pipelines that go through its country. Whether the US can install an unequivocally pro US (anti Iranian) Afghani govt that is both internationally recognized and capable of keeping ethnic stability remains to be seen. Does not seem to be much basis for optimism.I can't see how the US lives the Northern Alliance, however much it may rely on the Northern Alliance in the short term. It would seem that the US would like to split the Pakhtoon based Taleban govt and and hook them up with the Uzbeks who are not Persian speaking. This will also pacify Pakistan which has wanted Pakhtoon chauvinist govt to its North. But the US interest in setting up a stable, albeit anti Iranian, govt seems to explain why the US has been so eager to extend its war against al Qaeda to the Taleban govt itself. Rakesh
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