From: Paul Cockshott (wpc@DCS.GLA.AC.UK)
Date: Mon Oct 04 2004 - 06:13:56 EDT
What I was saying is that as a conceptual framework,
Markov transition theory seemed appropriate for thinking
of transitions between modes of productions.
The idea that there exists probable rates of transition
can be held as a philosophical position without being
able to estimate these because the small sample size
we are working with precludes accurate estimates of
transition probabilities.
The problem that historical materialism has is that
we have only a few samples of changes out of capitalism
to go on. It is probably still worth doing some empirical
research on this to see if any statistics can be derived
- for instance
- How often do revolutionary conjunctures arrive
- What is the probability of such a conjuncture actually
causing a revolution
- Are there observable contingent factors which seem
to be correlated to such conjunctures
I don't know if any Marxist has ever done a comprehensive
analysis of even these basic points.
In addition one could look at whether there is a sufficient
number of examples of what one might call social democratic
transitions to make any generalisations about these.
To do this one would need some metric to estimate the
rate of progress of a social formation from capitalism to
socialism:
- one might use the percentage of social labour that
was not allocated by market means
- the percentage of the workforce publicly employed
- the percentage of output distributed according to need
rather than according to market incomes
- the percentage of the value of means of production in public
ownership
If one had figures on these one could then derive figures for the
flow rates between modes of production for a sample of
developed capitalist countries.
This would be how I would set about estimating the transition
probabilities, but the problem would be in attaching error bars
to the estimates.
-----Original Message-----
From: OPE-L [mailto:OPE-L@SUS.CSUCHICO.EDU] On Behalf Of Gerald A. Levy
Sent: 02 October 2004 22:14
To: OPE-L@SUS.CSUCHICO.EDU
Subject: (OPE-L) Re: explaining transitions among modes of production
Paul C,
I thought that we could advance the discussion if you
could select a single social formation and show us how
you would calculate the transition arc and probability
for capitalism => socialism over a reasonably long time
period. Your responded by suggesting that this "goes
well beyond what historical materialism is currently capable
of."
OK, then how would you calculate the probability of
China/Japan/Holland/North Italy (or any combination of 4
or more international/intercontinental comparisons that
you choose) making the transition from capitalism to
socialism over the next 50 years?
If I understood what you wrote previously (on Thursday)
such a calculation is possible and does not go beyond
what historical materialism is capable of.
In solidarity, Jerry
Excerpts from Paul's post on Thursday:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It is only when one starts looking
at international/intercontinental comparisons that one
can start thinking of it in stochastic terms - the probability
of China/Japan/Holland/North Italy undergoing a transition etc.
So I think that if we are to progress the discussion we
should focus on particular transitions arcs on the graph -
and in view of their conjunctural relevance - I suggest we
focus on the arcs below:
capitalism => socialism
socialism => capitalism
socialism => communism
communism => socialism
capitalism => communism
communism => capitalism
I think that we can assign to all of these arcs some
non zero probability flux, but some are obviously more
probable than others, and we should have some theory
of what makes one arc more probable than another.
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