[OPE-L] the macroeconomic effect of declining real wages?

From: glevy@PRATT.EDU
Date: Thu May 12 2005 - 10:34:57 EDT


Has this been a major way in which the US economy has avoided
a deeper economic crisis in recent years?  Or, have declining
real wages -- to the extent that they might have decreased
aggregate demand -- exaccerbated the crisis?

In solidarity, Jerry

-------------------------------------

  Real wages fall at fastest rate in 14 years

  By Christopher Swann in Washington

  Financial Times -- May 10, 2005

  http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f269a8f4-c173-11d9-943f-00000e2511c8,ft_acl=,s01=1.html

  Real wages in the US are falling at their fastest
  rate in 14
  years, according to data surveyed by the Financial
  Times.

  Inflation rose 3.1 per cent in the year to March but
  salaries
  climbed just 2.4 per cent, according to the
  Employment Cost
  Index. In the final three months of 2004, real wages
  fell by 0.9
  per cent.

  The last time salaries fell this steeply was at the
  start of
  1991, when real wages declined by 1.1 per cent.

  Stingy pay rises mean many Americans will have to
  work longer
  hours to keep up with the cost of living, and they
  could
  ultimately undermine consumer spending and economic
  growth.

  Many economists believe that in spite of the
  unexpectedly large
  rise in job creation of 274,000 in April, the uneven
  revival in
  the labour market since the 2001 recession has made
  it hard for
  workers to negotiate real improvements in living
  standards.

  Even after last month's bumper gain in employment,
  there are
  22,000 fewer private sector jobs than when the
  recession began
  in March 2001, a 0.02 per cent fall. At the same
  point in the
  recovery from the recession of the early 1990s,
  private sector
  employment was up 4.7 per cent.

  Stagnant salaries push more families towards the
  breadline A
  surfeit of workers and the threat of off- shoring
  are allowing
  companies to call the shots on wages. 'There is
  still little
  evidence that workers are gaining much traction in
  their
  negotiations,' said Paul Ashworth, US analyst at
  Capital
  Economics, the consultancy. 'If this does not pick
  up, it raises
  the prospect of a sharper slowdown in consumer
  spending than we
  have been expecting.'

  Economists are divided over the best source for
  measuring pay
  increases in the US, since the government releases
  three main
  measures. A gauge of average hourly earnings is
  released with
  the employment report. This rose by 0.3 per cent in
  both March
  and April and 0.1 per cent in February. Even with a
  slight rise
  in the hours employees are working, from 33.7 to
  33.9, this
  suggests wages are struggling to keep pace with
  inflation. The
  gauge covers non-supervisory workers, about 80 per
  cent of the
  workforce.

  The Bureau of Economic Analysis figures for personal
  income
  showed wages rising at close to 6 per cent in 2004
  but slowing
  down since. This measure also showed wages rising by
  just 0.3
  per cent in each of the past 2 months. This is a
  broader gauge
  and includes small businesses and professional
  partnerships, but
  it measures total corporate wage bill rather than
  wages per
  person.

  The Employment Cost Index, seen by some as the most
  reliable
  measure, excludes overtime and professional
  partnerships.

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****************************************
Breathe in. Breathe out.
Breathe in. Breathe out.
Forget this and attaining Enlightenment
will be the least of your problems.

Robert T. O'Brien
Ph.D. Candidate
Department of Anthropology
Temple University
robrien@temple.edu
215-803-5181

AAAUnite Ad Hoc Committee
http://AAAUnite.blogspot.com
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/aaaunite/
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