From: Rakesh Bhandari (bhandari@BERKELEY.EDU)
Date: Mon Jul 03 2006 - 03:24:45 EDT
> >============================================================ >NY Times, June 30, 2006 >As China Ages, a Shortage of Cheap Labor Looms >By HOWARD W. FRENCH > > > >Even within China, Mr. Zuo said, many foreign investors have begun >moving factories away from Shanghai and other eastern cities to inland >locations, where the work force is cheaper and younger. > >Full: ><http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/30/world/asia/30aging.html? >hp&ex=1151726400&en=92530c7ed24b728e&ei=5094&partner=homepage> But this suggests that the surplus population even on the seaboard will not be soaked up. Facing shortages, employers just move inland. And while the greying of the population portends population shortage, there does not seem to be one at present or or the horizon...even in China which receives a disproportionate share of FDI. Taking from Kaplinksy's analysis in Globalization, Poverty and Inequality (212-18), I note the following points. 1. Employment in formal sector mfg even in China declined 15% between 95 and 2002. 2. There are 100 to 150 million people in China working at very low levels of productivity waiting to absorbed into the modern global economy. 3. Millions of workers in the state sector are not classified as unemployed but laid off because they retain nominal relationship with their employers. Millions of people remain on the books but are effectively unemployed. 4. The reserve army of labor is beginning to include skilled workers. One should be careful about assuming that capitalist growth is soaking up the surplus populations even in China. Rakesh
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Mon Jul 31 2006 - 00:00:02 EDT