From: Rakesh Bhandari (bhandari@BERKELEY.EDU)
Date: Mon Jul 03 2006 - 03:29:46 EDT
> Paul C wrote on 14 June: > > >As the Chinese economy exhausts its supplies of peasant labour, the >widespread but relatively isolated labour militancy of today can be >expected to coalese into a powerful trades union movement. There is good reason to believe that even explosive mfg growth is not soaking up the surplus population. See my last post. We are looking at jobless growth which a host of special factors in China and the Wet is at present masking. > Real wages >have been rising fast already, and this will continue. There seem to have been some improvements for example in Shanghai, but this is just pushing investment inward. So wage growth has not in fact been sharp in general terms. So argues Kaplinksy. I plan on reading Glyn's book soon. Rakesh >The very rapid >high share of profits being accumulated will depress the proportional >rate of return on capital. The profitability margin attracting capital >from Europe to China will then become less marked. Faced with declining >rates of return at home Chinese firms will look abroad for investment >opportunities in the comming decade. The Chinese purchase of IBMs PC >division, and of the remains of the UK car industry are early harbingers. >China's trade surpluses mean that it is already in a position to be >a substantial capital exporter. > >The process that occured with Britain in the 1880s or Japan from >the 1980s onwards as >these countries labour reserves were used up, shows us what to expect. > > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:smime 19.p7s ( / ) (00198DA3)
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