RE: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist economic crisis

clyder@gn.apc.org

Quoting Samir AMIN <samir.amin@wanadoo.fr>:

> 
> 
> PLEASE PUT ME OFF YOUR MAILING LIST
> 
> YOU SEND MUCH TOO MUCH PAPERS

Gerry and Jurrian, can I suggest that the two of you cease posting on
so many items from other sites, you are completely hogging the list
to the detriment of serious discussion.

> 
> I CANNOT FOLLOW
> 
> REGARDS
> 
> SAMIR AMIN
> 
> 
> 
> > Message du 28/03/08 13:47
> > De : "GERALD LEVY" 
> > A : "Outline on Political Economy mailing list" 
> > Copie Ã  : 
> > Objet : RE: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist
> economic crisis
> > 
> > 
> > What is truly amazing is just how much you can predict, if you overcome 
> > the obstacles of the type that I mentioned, i.e. if you remove the source
> of 
> > unpredictability.
> Hi Jurriaan:
> You've made similar statements before but I honestly can think of no 
> concrete examples of "truly amazing" macro-  or microeconomic forecasts 
> for or within capitalist social formations.  What specific examples are you
> thinking
> of?
> Rather than being amazing, most economic forecasts *when they are right*
> are generally no-bainers.  It often is simply a matter of assuming that the
> rate
> of change of major variables continues in the same direction as has occurred
> in the recent past.  This is often all well and good if you are making a
> projection 
> for a period which is characterized by relative economic stability, e.g. a 
> short-term forecast during one period of capitalist expansion for another
> moment i
> n time of that same  expansion. But, such forecasting models are not
> generally 
> very good at predicting major  changes in market activity.  
> If you think that capitalist economies are characterized by a chaotic
> dynamic
> process then they limits the effectiveness of the forecasting models.
> Minsky-
> type models aren't exactly forecasting models, are they?
> In solidarity, Jerry
> 
> >
> > [ (pas de nom de fichier) (0.1 Ko) ]
> Samir AMIN  Visit the Third Word Formum Web Sites, Visitez les sites du Forum
> du Tiers Monde ;  http://thirdworldforum.net  http://forumtiersmonde.net 
> http://samiramin.org

Paul Cockshott

www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~wpc
reality.gn.apc.org

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