Re: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist economic crisis

dogangoecmen@aol.com

 what happened to this list? what happened to the whole serious theoretical discussion on this list?
we had earlier not less but more emails sent to this list. Why do people think now that there are sent much too much emails?
I am missing our earlier debates.
Regards,
Dogan

-----Ursprüngliche Mitteilung----- 
Von: Paul Cockshott <clyder@gn.apc.org>
An: Samir AMIN <samir.amin@wanadoo.fr>; Outline on Political Economy mailing list <ope@lists.csuchico.edu>
Verschickt: So., 30. Mrz. 2008, 22:36
Thema: RE: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist economic crisis

Quoting Samir AMIN <samir.amin@wanadoo.fr>:

> 
> 
> PLEASE PUT ME OFF YOUR MAILING LIST
> 
> YOU SEND MUCH TOO MUCH PAPERS

Gerry and Jurrian, can I suggest that the two of you cease posting on
so many items from other sites, you are completely hogging the list
to the detriment of serious discussion.

> 
> I CANNOT FOLLOW
> 
> REGARDS
> 
> SAMIR AMIN
> 
> 
> 
> > Message du 28/03/08 13:47
> > De : "GERALD LEVY" 
> > A : "Outline on Political Economy mailing list" 
> > Copie Ã  : 
> > Objet : RE: [OPE] estimating the severity and duration of a capitalist
> economic crisis
> > 
> > 
> > What is truly amazing is just how much you can predict, if you overcome 
> > the obstacles of the type that I mentioned, i.e. if you remove the source
> of 
> > unpredictability.
> Hi Jurriaan:
> You've made similar statements before but I honestly can think of no 
> concrete examples of "truly amazing" macro-  or microeconomic forecasts 
> for or within capitalist social formations.  What specific examples are you
> thinking
> of?
> Rather than being amazing, most economic forecasts *when they are right*
> are generally no-bainers.  It often is simply a matter of assuming that the
> rate
> of change of major variables continues in the same direction as has occurred
> in the recent past.  This is often all well and good if you are making a
> projection 
> for a period which is characterized by relative economic stability, e.g. a 
> short-term forecast during one period of capitalist expansion for another
> moment i
> n time of that same  expansion. But, such forecasting models are not
> generally 
> very good at predicting major  changes in market activity.  
> If you think that capitalist economies are characterized by a chaotic
> dynamic
> process then they limits the effectiveness of the forecasting models.
> Minsky-
> type models aren't exactly forecasting models, are they?
> In solidarity, Jerry
> 
> >
> > [ (pas de nom de fichier) (0.1 Ko) ]
> Samir AMIN  Visit the Third Word Formum Web Sites, Visitez les sites du Forum
> du Tiers Monde ;  http://thirdworldforum.net  http://forumtiersmonde.net 
> http://samiramin.org

Paul Cockshott

www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~wpc
reality.gn.apc.org

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