[OPE] Predicting a revolt in Egypt...

The Israel liberal daily Ha'aretz comments:

"Western intelligence in general and Israeli intelligence in particular did
not foresee the scope of change in Egypt (the eventual descriptor
"revolution" will apparently have to wait a little longer). Likewise, almost
all of the media analysis and academic experts got it wrong."
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/egypt-riots-are-an-intelligence-chief-s-nightmare-1.340027

Nevertheless, at least one published author, John Bradley (not to be
confused with Bradley Manning) predicted the revolt on the basis of a
detailed analysis of publicly available facts, without any wikileaks (!):

"As Egypt smoulders and the country's president grows more unpopular by the
minute, a book his regime banned in 2008, "Inside Egypt: The Land of the
Pharaohs on the Brink of the Revolution," offers unparalleled insight into
the unfolding drama in the Arab world's most populous country. The
controversial book by John R. Bradley, a British expert on the Middle East,
caused an international media firestorm when it was banned by the Mubarak
regime on publication. Now it is easy to see why it so threatened the
regime, having predicted with remarkable accuracy the revolutionary fervor
now sweeping the Arab world's most populous country."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20110129/bs_prweb/prweb5016994
http://www.amazon.com/Inside-Egypt-Pharaohs-Brink-Revolution/dp/023061437X/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1296337178&sr=1-3#_

Once again, the power of human foresight showed itself... the forecast
wasn't politically acceptable though, and therefore disregarded.

Jurriaan

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Received on Sat Jan 29 16:57:34 2011