Koleman Strumpf's Published Papers

The Arsenal of Democracy: Production and Politics During WWII (with J. Snyder and P. Rhode). 2018. Journal of Public Economics.

• Link to JPubE version
• Last pre-publication draft (includes Appendix not intended for publication)
• Working paper: NBER working paper 24158

Smoking and Mortality: New Evidence from a Long Panel (with M. Darden and D. Gilleskie). International Economic Review, 2018. 59: 1571-1619.

• Link to IER version
• Last pre-publication draft

The effect of file sharing on record sales, revisited (with F. Oberholzer-Gee). Information Economics and Policy, 2016. 37: 61-66.

• Link to IEP version

Discussion of: Copyright and the Profitability of Authorship: Evidence from Payments to Writers in the Romantic Period (MacGarvie and Moser). Economics of Digitization (Shane Greenstein, Avi Goldfarb, and Catherine Tucker, editors), University of Chicago Press, 2014.

The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective (with P. Rhode), The Oxford Handbook of Economics and Gambling, Oxford University Press, 2013.

• Link to book page
• Last pre-publication draft
• Revised version of, Historical Political Futures Markets: An International Perspective (NBER WP #14377).

File-Sharing and Copyright (with F. Oberholzer-Gee). NBER's Innovation Policy and the Economy series, volume 10. ed. Joshua Lerner and Scott Stern. MIT Press. 2009.

• Link to book page (UofC)
• Last pre-publication draft

Introduction to Special Issue on Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets. Journal of Prediction Markets. 2009. 3(1): i-vii.

• Link to JPM version
• Background:
  • Papers based on Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November 2007, Kauffman Foundation)
  • Table of contents: I served as special editor of the journal issue
• More details: Entire issue (JPM, Volume 3, Number 2)

The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales: An Empirical Analysis (with F. Oberholzer-Gee). Journal of Political Economy. 2007. 115(1):1-42.

• Link to JPE version
• Last pre-publication draft
• Earlier drafts: March 2004, June 2005
• Media:
  • New York Times (5 April 2004)
  • ABC Nightline appearance (24 September 2004)
  • Le Show (4 April 2004): clip, full show. Harry Shearer reads from the abstract and tells me to get out of bed! As close to a Simpsons reference as I will ever get.
• Supreme Court amicus brief: Supporting respondents in MGM v. Grokster (Copyright Office list of documents from the case). And Concurrence of Justice Breyer citing the paper.

Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes (with M. Coppejans, D. Gilleskie, H. Sieg). Review of Economics and Statistics. 2007. 89(3): 510-521.

• Link to ReStat version
• Draft without citations
• Earlier draft with additional details: NBER Working Paper No. 12156

The Behavioral Dynamics of Youth Smoking (with D. Gilleskie). Journal of Human Resources. 2005. 40(4): 822-866.

• Link to JHR version
• Older versions: Last pre-publication draft, NBER WP #7838.
• Cited in: Business Week (4 September 2000).

Decentralization and Government Provision of Public Goods: The Public Health Sector in Uganda (with J. Akin and P. Hutchinson). Journal of Development Studies. 2005. 41(8): 1417-1443.

• Link to JDS version
• Last pre-publication draft

Historical Presidential Betting Markets (with P. Rhode). Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2004 (Spring). 18(2): 127-142.

• Link to JEP version
• Last pre-publication draft
• Longer version: Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections.
• Cited in:
  • Science (Vol 305, Issue 5684, 603, 30 July 2004)
  • Science News (Vol 164, No. 16, 251, 18 October 2003). Based on related work.

Assessing the Importance of Tiebout Sorting: Local Heterogeneity from 1850 to 1990 (with P. Rhode). American Economic Review. 2003. 93: 1648-1677.

• Link to AER version
• Last pre-publication draft
• A Historical Test of the Tiebout Hypothesis: Local Heterogeneity from 1850 to 1990 (NBER WP #7946): older version with more details on the county data.
• Data Appendix.
• Replication file for the empirical results.

Endogenous Policy Decentralization: Testing the Central Tenet of Economic Federalism (with F. Oberholzer-Gee). Journal of Political Economy. 2002. 110: 1-36.

• Link to JPE version
• Last pre-publication draft
• Data sources for this paper are contained in the following book chapter: Local Liquor Control from 1934 to 1970 (with F. Oberholzer-Gee). In Public Choice Interpretations of American Economic History (ed. Heckelman, Moorhouse, Whaples), 1999

Does Government Decentralization Increase Policy Innovation? Journal of Public Economic Theory. 2002. 4: 207-241.

• Link to JPET version
• Last pre-publication draft

Strategic Competition in Sequential Election Contests. Public Choice. 2002. 111: 377-397.

• Link to PubChoice version
• Last pre-publication draft

Government Credibility and Policy Choice: Evidence from the Pennsylvania Earned Income Tax. Journal of Public Economics. 2001. 80: 141-167.

• Link to JPubE version
• Last pre-publication draft

Infrequent Assessments Distort Property Taxes: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Urban Economics. 1999. 46: 169-199.

• Link to JUrbanEcon version
• Last pre-publication draft

Estimating Presidential Elections: The Importance of State Fixed Effects and the Role of National versus Local Information (with J. Phillippe). Economics & Politics. 1999. 11: 33-50.

• Link to EandP version
• Last pre-publication draft

A Predictive Index for the Flypaper Effect. Journal of Public Economics. 1998. 69: 389-412.

• Link to JPubE version
• Last pre-publication draft

Essays in political economy. Dissertation, MIT, 1995.

Note: Link to MIT thesis site.